2005 AGN NOV 01 I11 - Laserfiche WebLink

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NAvIGANT s market in Southern California for the short and mid-term future. Identification of key elements of the Southern California Gas delivering system will also be noted. In order to help Colton Electric in its market analysis, NCI will use its proprietary natural gas forecast prepared by NCI with the assistance of the "EEA Gas Market Data and Forecasting System" that is used exclusively by NCI for most all of its natural gas client forecasting engagements. The forecast will be used to help Colton Electric develop a view of the future gas and electric markets facing the utility and will be used to determine its VAR (Value at Risk) based upon inputs developed particular to Colton Electric. Task 4 — Electric Purchase/Sale Analysis Depending upon the economics existing at any particular time, Colton Electric will be in the position of being able to either sell excess energy from its local generation or purchase energy on the open market. By comparing Colton Electric's expected generation costs (taking into account natural gas price forecasts developed in Task 3) with forecasts for purchased power in southern California, NCI will be able to project a reasonable scenario of Colton's power purchase/sale modes and determine the risks associated with that projected sale/purchase profile. NCI will utilize monthly on -peak and off-peak market price data developed for its WECC Energy Outlook Reference Case Market Simulation and Electricity Price Forecast which utilizes the PROSYM price forecasting model. The market price data that will be developed will include monthly forecasts by time -of -day periods for both the SP -15 and LADWP pricing zones. Task 5 — Perform T & D System Analysis The most physically exposed part of an electric utility system is the "wires" part of its facilities. This consists of the transmission, sub transmission, and distribution lines as well as its interconnected substations. In the case of Colton, the primary elements consist of four 66 kV substations and lines operating at 66 kV down to various utilization voltages. NCI proposes to conduct an analysis of the 66 kV transmission system that will identify vulnerable locations on the system that are subject to overload or insufficient fault interruption capability under both normal and contingency conditions. Additionally, NCI will review Colton's relay protection practices on both its 66 kV transmission and 12 kV distribution equipment in order to ascertain if reliability is being compromised by practices which are not industry standard. Colton Electric - Risk Assessment and Management Plan 4